Consumer Credit Market in the UK to 2018: New Industry Share, Analysis and Forecast

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Consumer credit growth has shown consistent signs of growth in 2014, for the first time since before the financial crisis. This is in a large part due to consumer confidence also recording a positive number for the first time since the credit crunch, low interest rates and a steadily growing GDP, as nearly every category of lending has grown up to July 2014.Demand for and availability of credit also grew in both the second and third quarters of 2014, which has been a key factor.

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HSBC became the first lender to break the 5% interest rate barrier for its GBP7,500–15,000 personal loan, which launched a price war between mainstream lenders, as each bank or building society tried to get to the top of the comparison tables. Tesco lowered its interest rates soon after, and Sainsbury’s raised its upper limit to GBP 35,000 in October – a record high personal loan. This means that lending is cheaper than ever for consumers, which has unsurprisingly given the industry a huge boost. The personal loan category was hit harder than any other in the aftermath of the financial crisis, and the stock of personal loans remains over GBP30.0 billion below its January 2008 total, so there is still ample room for recovery.

Consumer confidence was positive in July 2014 – the first time since before the financial crisis, with a score of 1 for the month – and the index’s recent surge has helped to drive the consumer credit industry during this year. The index averaged -29.1 in 2012 and -19.9 in 2013, but just -6.8 in 2014. This improvement is expected to continue, as it has risen throughout 2014, although the BoE increasing the central bank rate could set it back temporarily.

The student loan category is not affected by the same factors as the rest of the consumer credit industry, as growth has been driven by the number of students and cost of tuition continuing to rise. The substantial jump from GBP3.97 billion in 2012–2013 to GBP 5.66 billion in 2013–2014 represents the impact of increased tuition fees.

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Key highlights:-

Consumer credit growth has shown consistent signs of growth in 2014, for the first time since before the financial crisis. This is in a large part due to consumer confidence also recording a positive number for the first time since the credit crunch, low interest rates and a steadily growing GDP, as nearly every category of lending has grown up to July 2014.Demand for and availability of credit also grew in both the second and third quarters of 2014, which has been a key factor.

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